The OECD forecasts a global recession of 6% for 2020 if the COVID-19 pandemic remains under control and 7.6% in the case of a second wave, according to the economic outlook published on Wednesday (10).
For 2021, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) anticipates a strong recovery in the first case, with a growth of 5.2%, which will be limited to 2.8% in the case of a second wave of the pandemic.
At the beginning of March, when the coronavirus had already reached China, but it still did not affect other major economies on the planet, the OECD was betting on world growth of 2.4% for this year.
Whether or not a second wave of the new coronavirus occurs, "by the end of 2021 the loss of revenue will overcome that of all previous recessions in the past 100 years, except during the war, with dire and lasting consequences for populations, companies and governments, "says OECD chief economist Laurence Boone.
The eurozone will be particularly affected with an expected decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 9.1% in the most favorable scenario, and 11.5% in the second wave hypothesis in 2020.
In Latin America, Brazil should register a drop in GDP of 7.4% or 9.1%, respectively, according to the scenario.
Argentina will decrease by 8.3% or 10.1%. Mexico's economy is expected to decline 7.5% or 8.6%.
For the United States, the OECD expects GDP to fall by 7.3% or 8.5%, respectively, according to scenarios.
China, which grew 6.1% last year, will suffer a 2.6% contraction in its economy in 2020, which could be 3.7% if the virus returns strongly.